As Warner Bros./Legendary’s “A Minecraft Movie” looks to prove that its status as a viral phenomenon is not a fluke, a flurry of films from mostly specialty distributors are hitting theaters this weekend, hoping to build word-of-mouth ahead of Palm Sunday. Disney/20th Century’s “The Amateur” and Angel Studios’ “The King of Kings” are among the set of five new releases.
But all eyes, of course, will be on “Minecraft” as it tries to turn the April box office into the pre-summer bonanza that theaters usually see in March. The videos and memes surrounding the film and its screenings have only grown since it topped “Barbie” with a $163 million domestic opening.
At a time when audiences are more selective than ever and are quicker to abandon a film if word-of-mouth about its quality is bad, “A Minecraft Movie” has a rare buzz that is divorced from quality (it has a 47% on Rotten Tomatoes). As noted in TheWrap’s analysis earlier this week, it is the experience of seeing the film in the theater, not the film itself, that has become the main draw.
And while that’s made some theater employees frustrated, if headlines about police being called to rowdy screenings are any indication, it’s made “Minecraft” into a Gen Z sensation similar to the “Gentleminions” craze three years ago, in which young men would show up in suits and ties to see “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and boosted that film to a $370.5 million total.
As for “Minecraft,” exhibitors say that they expect the film to keep its second weekend drop below 60%, which would mean a second weekend total of at least $65 million. But major upside is expected, and the possibility of a $75 million-plus weekend — which “Minecraft” was initially projected to earn on its opening weekend — is still on the table. If the hold gets to 50% or lower, “Minecraft” may soon join the $1 billion club.
As for the newcomers, none of them are currently projected to open to more than $15 million this weekend. But one that may surprise is Angel Studios/Mofac Animation’s “The King of Kings,” an animated retelling of the Gospel with a loaded voice cast that includes Kenneth Branagh as Charles Dickens, who narrates the Christian tale to his son, and Oscar Isaac as Jesus Christ.
After earning around $8 million in presales, “The King of Kings” is projected to earn $12-13 million, which would be equal to or slightly above the $11.8 million opening weekend of “The Chosen: Last Supper — Eps. 1-3” two weeks ago.
Fathom will be releasing the final episodes of “The Chosen: Last Supper” in a targeted release this weekend, with many of those theaters also running past episodes for fans of Dallas Jenkins’ series who want to spend Palm Sunday binge-watching on a big screen.
Combined with “The King of Kings,” which Angel Studios acquired from Mofac this past November, there will be plenty of faith-based offerings for Christian moviegoers. For some theater chains such as the Missouri-based B&B Theatres, “The Chosen” was the best-performing title in their circuit prior to “Minecraft,” and the addition of an animated take on the Gospel along with a live-action one should make this Easter an even more lucrative one for such cinemas.
For more secular moviegoers, tales of revenge, war and smartphone terror are on offer. Disney/20th Century’s “The Amateur” is projected to challenge “The King of Kings” for the No. 2 spot on the charts, with projections of a $12 million opening from 3,300 theaters, including premium format support.
Starring Rami Malek as a CIA decoder who decides to take a gun and matters into his own hands when his wife is killed, “The Amateur” has a reported $60 million budget and is going to have to leg out globally to make that back. Reception for “The Amateur” has been mildly positive among critics with a 68% Rotten Tomatoes score to go with a more enthused 86% score from audiences at preview screenings.
Expected to open in the single digit range are A24’s “Warfare” and Universal/Blumhouse’s “Drop.” Directed by Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza on a $20 million budget, “Warfare” is based on Mendoza’s recollections of fighting in the Battle of Ramadi during the Iraq War as a Navy SEAL and follows his platoon in real time.
While receiving critical acclaim as one of the most harrowing and accurate cinematic depictions of war with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, “Warfare” is likely to be a challenging film that only select audiences will buy a ticket for and is thus projected for an $8 million opening weekend from 2,650 theaters.
“Drop,” meanwhile, isn’t expected to break Blumhouse’s recent slump with a $6-7 million opening from 3,000 theaters and will have to hope for strong word-of-mouth with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score to find some form of momentum. The thriller stars Meghann Fahy as a single mother who goes on a luxurious date, only to be ordered by a mysterious attacker through text messages to kill his date or her son and sister will be murdered.
