The dust may have settled on the TV upfronts, but the fallout has just begun.
We won't have most of the answers to the questions raised by a week of the network dog-and-pony shows until the fall season is under way. But because they'll be spending billions of dollars in commercial time in the next few weeks, media agencies tend to have more insight than the average armchair critic.
To that end, we came up with eight burning questions about how the new season might play out — and asked three veteran media agency programming research analysts what they thought.
They are: Billie Gold, VP and director of programming research at Carat; Brad Adgate, senior VP, research, Horizon Media; and Steve Sternberg, longtime head of TV research analyst at Magna, who is now heading up his own TV research consulting business.
Here's what they said:
1. NBC brought in a bunch of what it calls "hitmakers" for next season, show creators like J.J. Abrams ("Undercovers"), Jerry Bruckheimer ("Chase") and David E. Kelley ("Harry's Law"). Will their movie success transfer to the small screen?
Brad Adgate, senior VP, research, Horizon Media: It lets the advertising community know NBC is comitted to quality programming. There are no guarantees that these shows will be hits, but the clips were promising.
Billie Gold, VP and director of programming research at Carat: We have learned from the past that producers don't always produce "hits." Viewers watch shows, not producers. However, if a viewer has a producer whose programming they particularly like, that may increase the initial sampling for the show.
Steve Sternberg, longtime head of TV research analyst at Magna, now running up his own TV research consulting business: It really depends on the quality of the show. But bringing in these big names tells the advertising community that NBC wants to be back in the game.
2. CBS is moving several veteran shows to different time days — including "The Big Bang Theory" (left), "CSI: Miami" and "Survivor." Isn't this going to just confuse the viewer?
Adgate: Some of these shows have been trending down in the ratings. So moving them might shake things up.
Gold: Loyal viewers will most likely follow the shows to their new times, but casual viewers may abandon the shows due to increased competition in the new time periods. Casual viewers are also less likely to DVR, which could lead to a potential decline in ratings. There is an opportunity for a show to gain new viewers in its new time period, but it's a gamble.
Sternberg: Every move CBS made was a good one. "Big Bang" will do well on Thursday night and "Survivor" has always done well when the network moved it to Wednesdays temporarily during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. "CSI: NY," while declining on Wednesday this season, will probably win its new time period on Fridays.
3.Two former drama stars — Tom Selleck in "Blue Bloods" on CBS and Jimmy Smits in "Outlaw" on NBC — are going head-to-head Fridays at 10. Who'll win?
Adgate: The ratings expectations for both shows are pretty low.
Gold: Selleck because he has a better lead-in ("CSI:NY" — NBC's "Dateline" leads into "Outlaw.")
Sternberg: Shows make stars, stars don't make shows. So it's hard to say.
4. Does NBC's "Undercovers" have too much violence and sexual innuendo for 8 p.m.?
Adgate: I think in today's TV landscape and environment, "Undercovers" (right) has become an 8 p.m. show. And 10 p.m. has become a difficult time period to launch a new show.
Gold: I wouldn't have put "Undercovers" in that time period, but the chemistry between the two leads is good and production value seems superior. It may work.
Sternberg: I don't think it's an 8 p.m. show, but it's not that much worse than "Chuck."
5. Can Friday nights be revived?
Adgate: If the networks put hit shows on Friday, viewers will find them. The problem is that if a show does well on Friday, they'll probably move it to another night.
Gold: If you build it, they will come. As far as reaching older audiences on Friday next season with Selleck and Smits, you can't get much older than the audiences that watched the shows CBS canceled — "Ghost Whisperer" and "Numb3rs."
Sternberg: There are people and families at home on Friday nights, they are just doing other things or not watching television.I f you put a good show on, people will watch it.
6. ABC entertainment president Steve McPherson has called "My Generation" and "No Ordinary Family" groundbreaking shows that will fill the void of departing "Lost." Are they?
Adgate: I don't think either is necessarily groundbreaking, but they can both become hits. "My Generation" is another example of the networks' obsession about twentysomethings, a tough demo to attract.
Gold: From the clips, I didn't get that excited feeling I got when I saw "Lost" or "24," and both of those indeed seemed to be groundbreaking. "My Generation" is another "Big Chill" meets "Friends," and "No Ordinary Family" used the same special effects as "Heroes" and is similar to "The Incredibles." Both may be interesting, but not groundbreaking.
Sternberg: This season, ABC portrayed "FlashForward" as groundbreaking, but it did not work. You can't force it to be groundbreaking.
Sternberg: Older stars seem to be able to draw more viewers to their shows. That's why I think Selleck and Kathy Bates ("Harry's Law") will do well.
7. What about CBS starting a one-hour comedy block from 8-9 p.m. on Thursday to challenge NBC?
Adgate: The most interesting move of the season is CBS moving "Big Bang Theory" to Thursday night at 8 p.m. I think NBC's comedies do attract a more upscale viewer, but CBS' are broader reaching.
Gold: It will most likely take at least a small bite out of NBC's modest audience.
Sternberg: "Big Bang Theory" will not compete head-to-head with NBC for viewers. It has a broader audience and could impact Fox's drama "Bones" more than the NBC sitcoms. But the move will bring in more ad dollars for CBS on Thursday, an important night for advertisers.
8. ABC's "Castle" is the only returning show at 10 p.m. and will go up against freshman NBC show "Chase" and CBS freshman show "Hawaii Five-O." Who will win the time period?
Adgate: "Castle" viewing had been trending upward toward the end of the season and probably kept it from being canceled. I would suspect that it could win the time period leading out of "Dancing With the Stars." But "Hawaii Five-O" (left) will be heavily buzzed. And with "Chase," you can't count out anything from Jerry Bruckheimer.
Gold: "Castle" could be neck-and-neck with "Hawaii Five-O." But "Chase" may emerge victorious among adults 18-49.
Sternberg: "Hawaii Five-O" gets the edge. The "CSI: Miami" audience will now watch "Five-O." But it will be close between "Five-O" and "Castle." "Chase" is more male oriented and will probably finish third in the time period.
